Climate-driven global redistribution of an ocean giant predicts increased threat from shipping

Womersley, F, Sims, DW, Humphries, NE, Sousa, LL, Abrantes, K, Araujo, G, Bach, SS and Barnett, A 2024 Climate-driven global redistribution of an ocean giant predicts increased threat from shipping. Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02129-5

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Abstract/Summary

Climate change is shifting animal distributions. However, the extent to which future global habitats of threatened marine megafauna will overlap existing human threats remains unresolved. Here we use global climate models and habitat suitability estimated from long-term satellite-tracking data of the world’s largest fish, the whale shark, to show that redistributions of present-day habitats are projected to increase the species’ co-occurrence with global shipping. Our model projects core habitat area losses of >50% within some national waters by 2100, with geographic shifts of over 1,000 km (∼12 km yr−1). Greater habitat suitability is predicted in current range-edge areas, increasing the co-occurrence of sharks with large ships. This future increase was ∼15,000 times greater under high emissions compared with a sustainable development scenario. Results demonstrate that climate-induced global species redistributions that increase exposure to direct sources of mortality are possible, emphasizing the need for quantitative climate-threat predictions in conservation assessments of endangered marine megafauna

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Additional Keywords:	marine megafauna, shipping, climate change, satellite tracking, whale shark
Subjects:	Conservation Ecology and Environment Marine Sciences
Divisions:	Marine Biological Association of the UK > Ocean Biology
Depositing User:	Ms Kristina Hixon
Date made live:	04 Nov 2024 09:31
Last Modified:	04 Nov 2024 09:31
URI:	https://plymsea.ac.uk/id/eprint/10308

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