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Alendal, G, Blackford, JC, Chen, B, Avlesen, H and Omar, A 2017 Using Bayes Theorem to Quantify and Reduce Uncertainties when Monitoring Varying Marine Environments for Indications of a Leak [in special issue: 13th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies, GHGT-13, 14-18 November 2016, Lausanne, Switzerland] Energy Procedia, 114. 3607-3612. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egypro.2017.03.1492
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Alendal et al 2017 EP.pdf - Published Version Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial No Derivatives. Download (261kB) | Preview |
Abstract/Summary
Monitoring the marine environment for leaks from geological storage projects is a challenge due to the variability of the environment and the extent of the area that migrating CO2 might seep through the seafloor. Due to the environmental risk associated leaks should not be allowed to continue undetected. There is also a cost issue since marine operations are expensive, so false alarms should be avoided. The main question is then: how large a deviation in the monitoring data should cause mobilization of confirmation and localization procedures? Here Baye’s theorem and Bayesian decision theory is suggested as a tool for quantifying certainties and to implement costs for false positives (false alarms) and false negatives (undetected leaks) in the decision procedure. The procedure is exemplified using modeled natural CO2 content variability and the predicted CO2 signal from a simulated leak.
| Item Type: | Publication - Article |
|---|---|
| Subjects: | Ecology and Environment Marine Sciences Pollution |
| Divisions: | Plymouth Marine Laboratory > Science Areas > Marine System Modelling |
| Depositing User: | Jerry Blackford |
| Date made live: | 22 Aug 2017 10:59 |
| Last Modified: | 25 Apr 2020 09:58 |
| URI: | https://plymsea.ac.uk/id/eprint/7496 |
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