A novel multispecies approach for the detection of regime shifts in a plankton community – a case study in the North Sea

Dees, P, Fröb, F, Arellano-Nava, B, Johns, DG and Heinze, C 2025 A novel multispecies approach for the detection of regime shifts in a plankton community – a case study in the North Sea. Ocean Science, 21 (5). 10.5194/os-21-2397-2025

Full text not available from this repository.

Abstract/Summary

he physical environment both above and below the ocean surface has changed dramatically during the last century. Changes in the marine environment induced by increased release of greenhouse gases and direct exploitation of resources include increased ocean temperature, decreased salinity and pH, and removal of apex predators. The risk of ecological regime shifts occurring has similarly increased. A variety of methodologies to identify regime shifts have already been used in the North Sea, which has become an important case study for the analysis of regime shifts in a semi-enclosed waterbody. The North Sea is regarded as a case study in part due to the operation of the continuous plankton recorder, which has provided detailed abundance records of phyto- and zooplankton for over 60 years. Here, we propose a new methodology to calculate regime shift likelihood for every month between 1958 and 2020. This unique model produces a single time series of regime shift likelihood, using sequential abundance data of more than 300 plankton species. We show the model's ability to identify when regime shifts occurred in the past by comparing it to previous less automated methodologies. We have validated the model for use in the North Sea by estimating how often false positives and false negatives are generated. Results from the model indicate evidence for three periods of high regime shift likelihood in various parts of the North Sea: between 1962 and 1972, between 1989 and 1999, and from 2002 until 2015. We show that these periods are consistent with previous estimates of North Sea regime shifts, and discuss possible applications of the model's output of a single time series

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Additional Keywords:	North Sea, plankton, regime shift, CPR
Subjects:	Marine Sciences
Divisions:	Marine Biological Association of the UK > Ocean Biology
Depositing User:	Ms Kristina Hixon
Date made live:	03 Nov 2025 09:17
Last Modified:	03 Nov 2025 09:17
URI:	https://plymsea.ac.uk/id/eprint/10529

Actions (login required)

View Item