Has Reducing Ship Emissions Brought Forward Global Warming?

Gettelman, A, Christensen, MW, Diamond, MS, Gryspeerdt, E, Manshausen, P, Stier, P, Watson‐Parris, D, Yang, M, Yoshioka, M and Yuan, T 2024 Has Reducing Ship Emissions Brought Forward Global Warming?. Geophysical Research Letters, 51 (15). https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL109077

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Abstract/Summary

Ships brighten low marine clouds from emissions of sulfur and aerosols, resulting in visible “ship tracks”. In 2020, new shipping regulations mandated an ∼80% reduction in the allowed fuel sulfur content. Recent observations indicate that visible ship tracks have decreased. Model simulations indicate that since 2020 shipping regulations have induced a net radiative forcing of +0.12 Wm−2. Analysis of recent temperature anomalies indicates Northern Hemisphere surface temperature anomalies in 2022–2023 are correlated with observed cloud radiative forcing and the cloud radiative forcing is spatially correlated with the simulated radiative forcing from the 2020 shipping emission changes. Shipping emissions changes could be accelerating global warming. To better constrain these estimates, better access to ship position data and understanding of ship aerosol emissions are needed. Understanding the risks and benefits of emissions reductions and the difficultly in robust attribution highlights the large uncertainty in attributing proposed deliberate climate intervention.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Divisions:	Plymouth Marine Laboratory > Science Areas > Marine Biochemistry and Observations
Depositing User:	S Hawkins
Date made live:	13 Sep 2024 12:56
Last Modified:	13 Sep 2024 12:56
URI:	https://plymsea.ac.uk/id/eprint/10295

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