The Expected Impacts of Climate Change on the Ocean Economy

Gaines, S, Cabral, R, Free, CM, Golbuu, Y, Arnason, R, Battista, W, Bradley, D, Cheung, W, Fabricius, KE, Hoegh-Guldberg, O, Juinio-Meñez, MA, Molinos, JG, Ojea, E, O'Reilly, E and Turley, CM 2023 The Expected Impacts of Climate Change on the Ocean Economy. In: The Blue Compendium. Springer Interrnational Publishing (2023), 15.

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Abstract/Summary

The ocean is critically important to our global economy. Collectively, it is estimated that ocean-based industries and activities contribute hundreds of millions of jobs and approximately US $2.5 trillion to the global economy each year, making it the world’s seventh-largest economy when compared with national gross domestic products. In addition, the nonmarket services and benefts provided by the global ocean are signifcant and may in fact far exceed the value added by market-based goods and services. • Climate change is altering ocean climate, chemistry, circulation, sea level and ice distribution. Collectively, these system changes have critical impacts on the habitats, biological productivities and species assemblages that underpin many of the economic benefts of the sea. • Swift efforts to reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are needed to maintain a robust ocean economy. The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report estimates that climate-induced declines in ocean health will cost the global economy $428 billion/year by 2050 and $1.98 trillion/year by 2100. • Climate change is reducing the productivities and changing the spatial distributions of economically important marine species and their habitats. All countries stand to gain signifcant benefts relative to a business-as-usual trajectory by implementing climate-adaptive fsheries management reforms that address both changes in species’ distributions and productivities due to climate change. Many countries could maintain or improve profts and catches into the future with effective adaptation. • The potential of marine aquaculture (mariculture) is likely to remain high under climate change and, with careful planning, mariculture could offset losses in food and income from capture fsheries in those countries that will experience losses in that sector. Expanding the potential for marine aquaculture will require enhancing technical capac�ities, defning best practices, easing undue regulatory bur�dens, increasing access to credit and insurance, breeding stocks for faster growth and improving feed technology. • The combined effects of ocean warming and acidifcation result in predictions of negative impacts on coral reef cover and tourism values for all countries, with magnitudes dependent on the strength of climate change. For a high emissions scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), coral cover is expected to decline by 72–87%, causing on-reef tourism values to decrease by over 90% in 2100. • Climate change impacts will differ by country and sector and solutions must be context-specifc. By exploring climate change impacts at the country level for fsheries, aquaculture and reef tourism, countries can assess what they stand to gain or lose due to climate change and understand how they might capitalise on these predictions to inform their investments and actions. • Implementing certain key strategies will help build socio�ecological resilience to climate change and ensure the continued, or improved, provision of functions and ser�vices from the ocean, especially for the most vulnerable coastal nations. These strategies include the following: – A focus on equity. Climate change is likely to cause and exacerbate global inequities, reducing resilience and thereby likely worsening outcomes under all climate change scenarios. It will thus be profoundly important to examine the equity implications of all new and existing management decisions across all three sectors. Looking forward. The future of the ocean economy is expected to drastically change given climate change, and the nature and magnitude of these changes can be highly variable. Each of these three sectors will need to work to understand risks and anticipate changes, and build precautionary and adaptive strategies into their management decisions. – Co-operating across boundaries. As suitable habitats shift and change, marine species will move across jurisdictional boundaries and regional, national and international cooperative agreements will be necessary to ensure that these species are well-managed, and that the benefts are fairly distributed during and after the transitions.

Item Type:	Publication - Book Section
Divisions:	Plymouth Marine Laboratory > Science Areas > Sea and Society
Depositing User:	S Hawkins
Date made live:	18 Jul 2024 10:31
Last Modified:	18 Jul 2024 10:31
URI:	https://plymsea.ac.uk/id/eprint/10254

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