Steeper size spectra with decreasing phytoplankton biomass indicate strong trophic amplification and future fish declines

Atkinson, A, Rossberg, AG, Gaedke, U, Sprules, G, Heneghan, RF, Batziakas, S, Grigoratou, M, Fileman, ES, Schmidt, K and Frangoulis, C 2024 Steeper size spectra with decreasing phytoplankton biomass indicate strong trophic amplification and future fish declines. Nature Communications, 15 (1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-44406-5

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Abstract/Summary

Under climate change, model ensembles suggest that declines in phyto�plankton biomass amplify into greater reductions at higher trophic levels, with serious implications for fisheries and carbon storage. However, the extent and mechanisms of this trophic amplification vary greatly among models, and validation is problematic. In situ size spectra offer a novel alternative, com�paring biomass of small and larger organisms to quantify the net efficiency of energy transfer through natural food webs that are already challenged with multiple climate change stressors. Our global compilation of pelagic size spectrum slopes supports trophic amplification empirically, independently from model simulations. Thus, even a modest (16%) decline in phytoplankton this century would magnify into a 38% decline in supportable biomass of fish within the intensively-fished mid-latitude ocean. We also show that this amplification stems not from thermal controls on consumers, but mainly from temperature or nutrient controls that structure the phytoplankton baseline of the food web. The lack of evidence for direct thermal effects on size structure contrasts with most current thinking, based often on more acute stress experiments or shorter-timescale responses. Our synthesis of size spectra integrates these short-term dynamics, revealing the net efficiency of food webs acclimating and adapting to climatic stressors

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Divisions:	Plymouth Marine Laboratory > National Capability categories > Single Centre NC - CLASS Plymouth Marine Laboratory > National Capability categories > Western Channel Observatory Plymouth Marine Laboratory > Science Areas > Marine Ecology and Biodiversity
Depositing User:	S Hawkins
Date made live:	10 Jan 2024 09:31
Last Modified:	10 Jan 2024 09:31
URI:	https://plymsea.ac.uk/id/eprint/10107

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