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Walter, JA; Castorani, MCN; Bell, TW; Sheppard, LW; Cavanaugh, KC; Reuman, DC. 2022 Tail dependent spatial synchrony arises from nonlinear driver response relationships. Ecology Letters. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.13991
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Ecology Letters - 2022 - Walter - Tail‐dependent spatial synchrony arises from nonlinear driver response relationships.pdf - Published Version Available under License Creative Commons Attribution. Download (1MB) | Preview |
Abstract/Summary
Spatial synchrony may be tail-dependent, that is, stronger when populations are abundant than scarce, or vice-versa. Here, ‘tail-dependent’ follows from distributions having a lower tail consisting of relatively low values and an upper tail of relatively high values. We present a general theory of how the distribution and correlation structure of an environmental driver translates into tail-dependent spatial synchrony through a non-linear response, and examine empirical evidence for theoretical predictions in giant kelp along the California coastline. In sheltered areas, kelp declines synchronously (lower-tail dependence) when waves are relatively intense, because waves below a certain height do little damage to kelp. Conversely, in exposed areas, kelp is synchronised primarily by periods of calmness that cause shared recovery (upper-tail dependence). We find evidence for geographies of tail dependence in synchrony, which helps structure regional population resilience: areas where population declines are asynchronous may be more resilient to disturbance because remnant populations facilitate reestablishment.
| Item Type: | Publication - Article |
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| Additional Keywords: | Copula, Disturbance, Giant Kelp, Macrocystis Pyrifera, Nutrients, Stability, Synchrony, Waves |
| Subjects: | Botany Earth Sciences Marine Sciences |
| Divisions: | Marine Biological Association of the UK > Knowledge Exchange |
| Depositing User: | Tamar Atkinson |
| Date made live: | 29 Apr 2022 15:03 |
| Last Modified: | 29 Apr 2022 15:03 |
| URI: | https://plymsea.ac.uk/id/eprint/9641 |
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