Tail dependent spatial synchrony arises from nonlinear driver response relationships

Walter, JA, Castorani, MCN, Bell, TW, Sheppard, LW, Cavanaugh, KC and Reuman, DC 2022 Tail dependent spatial synchrony arises from nonlinear driver response relationships. Ecology Letters. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.13991

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Spatial synchrony may be tail-dependent, that is, stronger when populations are abundant than scarce, or vice-versa. Here, ‘tail-dependent’ follows from distributions having a lower tail consisting of relatively low values and an upper tail of relatively high values. We present a general theory of how the distribution and correlation structure of an environmental driver translates into tail-dependent spatial synchrony through a non-linear response, and examine empirical evidence for theoretical predictions in giant kelp along the California coastline. In sheltered areas, kelp declines synchronously (lower-tail dependence) when waves are relatively intense, because waves below a certain height do little damage to kelp. Conversely, in exposed areas, kelp is synchronised primarily by periods of calmness that cause shared recovery (upper-tail dependence). We find evidence for geographies of tail dependence in synchrony, which helps structure regional population resilience: areas where population declines are asynchronous may be more resilient to disturbance because remnant populations facilitate reestablishment.

Item Type: Publication - Article
Additional Keywords: Copula, Disturbance, Giant Kelp, Macrocystis Pyrifera, Nutrients, Stability, Synchrony, Waves
Subjects: Botany
Earth Sciences
Marine Sciences
Divisions: Marine Biological Association of the UK > Other (MBA)
Depositing User: Tamar Atkinson
Date made live: 29 Apr 2022 15:03
Last Modified: 09 Feb 2024 16:57
URI: https://plymsea.ac.uk/id/eprint/9641

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