Tools
Tools
Holt, JT, Butenschon, M, Wakelin, SL, Artioli, Y and Allen, JI 2012 Oceanic controls on the primary production of the northwest European continental shelf: model experiments under recent past conditions and a potential future scenario. Biogeosciences, 9. 97 - 117. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-97-2012
|
Text
Holt et al Biogeosciences 2012.pdf Download (5MB) | Preview |
Abstract/Summary
In this paper we clearly demonstrate that changes in oceanic nutrients are a first order factor in determining changes in the primary production of the northwest European continental shelf on time scales of 5–10 yr. We present a series of coupled hydrodynamic ecosystem modelling simulations, using the POLCOMS-ERSEM system. These are forced by both reanalysis data and a single example of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (OA-GCM) representative of possible conditions in 2080–2100 under an SRES A1B emissions scenario, along with the corresponding present day control. The OA-GCM forced simulations show a substantial reduction in surface nutrients in the open-ocean regions of the model domain, comparing future and present day time-slices. This arises from a large increase in oceanic stratification. Tracer transport experiments identify a substantial fraction of on-shelf water originates from the open-ocean region to the south of the domain, where this increase is largest, and indeed the on-shelf nutrient and primary production are reduced as this water is transported on-shelf. This relationship is confirmed quantitatively by comparing changes in winter nitrate with total annual nitrate uptake. The reduction in primary production by the reduced nutrient transport is mitigated by on-shelf processes relating to temperature, stratification (length of growing season) and recycling. Regions less exposed to ocean-shelf exchange in this model (Celtic Sea, Irish Sea, English Channel, and Southern North Sea) show a modest increase in primary production (of 5–10%) compared with a decrease of 0–20% in the outer shelf, Central and Northern North Sea. These findings are backed up by a boundary condition perturbation experiment and a simple mixing model.
| Item Type: | Publication - Article |
|---|---|
| Subjects: | Computer Science Data and Information Ecology and Environment Marine Sciences Oceanography |
| Divisions: | Plymouth Marine Laboratory > Science Areas > Marine System Modelling |
| Depositing User: | EPrints Services |
| Date made live: | 11 Feb 2014 15:57 |
| Last Modified: | 13 Dec 2023 12:21 |
| URI: | https://plymsea.ac.uk/id/eprint/5284 |
Actions (login required)
 |
View Item |