Effects of Nutrient Management Scenarios on Marine Eutrophication Indicators: A Pan-European, Multi-Model Assessment in Support of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive

Friedland, R; Macias, DM; Cossarini, G; Daewel, U; Estournel, C; Garcia-Gorriz, E; Grizzetti, B; Gregoire, M; Gustafson, B; Kalaroni, S; Kerimoglu, O; Lazzari, P; Lenhart, H; Lessin, G; Maljutenko, I; Miladinova, S; Müller-Karulis, B; Neumann, T; Pärn, O; Pätsch, J; Piroddi, C; Raudsepp, U; Schrum, C; Stegert, C; Stips, A; Tsiaras, K; Ulses, C; Vandenbulcke, L. 2021 Effects of Nutrient Management Scenarios on Marine Eutrophication Indicators: A Pan-European, Multi-Model Assessment in Support of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive. Frontiers in Marine Science, 8, 596126. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.596126

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.596126

Abstract/Summary

A novel pan-European marine model ensemble was established, covering nearly all seas under the regulation of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD), with the aim of providing a consistent assessment of the potential impacts of riverine nutrient reduction scenarios on marine eutrophication indicators. For each sea region, up to five coupled biogeochemical models from institutes all over Europe were brought together for the first time. All model systems followed a harmonised scenario approach and ran two simulations, which varied only in the riverine nutrient inputs. The load reductions were evaluated with the catchment model GREEN and represented the impacts due to improved management of agriculture and wastewater treatment in all European river systems. The model ensemble, comprising 15 members, was used to assess changes to the core eutrophication indicators as defined within MSFD Descriptor 5. In nearly all marine regions, riverine load reductions led to reduced nutrient concentrations in the marine environment. However, regionally the nutrient input reductions led to an increase in the non-limiting nutrient in the water, especially in the case of phosphate concentrations in the Black Sea. Further core eutrophication indicators, such as chlorophyll-a, bottom oxygen and the Trophic Index TRIX, improved nearly everywhere, but the changes were less pronounced than for the inorganic nutrients. The model ensemble displayed strong consistency and robustness, as most if not all models indicated improvements in the same areas. There were substantial differences between the individual seas in the speed of response to the reduced nutrient loads. In the North Sea ensemble, a stable plateau was reached after only three years, while the simulation period of eight years was too short to obtain steady model results in the Baltic Sea. The ensemble exercise confirmed the importance of improved management of agriculture and wastewater treatments in the river catchments to reduce marine eutrophication. Several shortcomings were identified, the outcome of different approaches to compute the mean change was estimated and potential improvements are discussed to enhance policy support. Applying a model ensemble enabled us to obtain highly robust and consistent model results, substantially decreasing uncertainties in the scenario outcome

Item Type: Publication - Article
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.: Edited by: Michelle Jillian Devlin, Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, United Kingdom Reviewed by: Suzanne Jane Painting, Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, United Kingdom Rafael Sarda, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Spain *Correspondence: René Friedland rene.friedland@ec.europa.eu Specialty section: This article was submitted to Marine Ecosystem Ecology, a section of the journal Frontiers in Marine Science Received: 18 August 2020 Accepted: 28 January 2021 Published: 24 March 2021 Citation: Friedland R, Macias D, Cossarini G, Daewel U, Estournel C, Garcia-Gorriz E, Grizzetti B, Grégoire M, Gustafson B, Kalaroni S, Kerimoglu O, Lazzari P, Lenhart H, Lessin G, Maljutenko I, Miladinova S, Müller-Karulis B, Neumann T, Parn O, Pätsch J, Piroddi C, Raudsepp U, Schrum C, Stegert C, Stips A, Tsiaras K, Ulses C and Vandenbulcke L (2021) Effects of Nutrient Management Scenarios on Marine Eutrophication Indicators: A Pan-European, Multi-Model Assessment in Support of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive. Front. Mar. Sci. 8:596126. doi: 10.3389/fmars.2021.596126
Additional Keywords: MSFD, eutrophication, water quality indicators, lower trophic level models, model ensemble, panEuropean river management impacts
Divisions: Plymouth Marine Laboratory > National Capability categories > Single Centre NC - CLASS
Plymouth Marine Laboratory > Science Areas > Marine Ecosystem Models and Predictions
Depositing User: S Hawkins
Date made live: 26 Mar 2021 11:46
Last Modified: 26 Mar 2021 11:46
URI: http://plymsea.ac.uk/id/eprint/9165

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