Chapter 4: Projected changes in global and national potential marine fisheries catch under climate change scenarios in the twenty-first century

Cheung, WWL; Bruggeman, J; Butenschon, M. 2018 Chapter 4: Projected changes in global and national potential marine fisheries catch under climate change scenarios in the twenty-first century. Food & Agriculture Organization. (UNSPECIFIED)

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Official URL: http://www.fao.org/3/I9705EN/i9705en.pdf

Abstract/Summary

• Total maximum catch potential in the world’s exclusive economic zones (EEZs) (excluding those bordering semi-enclosed seas) was projected by applying two distinct approaches to likely decrease under climate change by 2.8 percent to 5.3 percent and 7.0 percent to 12.1 percent by 2050 relative to 2000 under the “strong mitigation” (RCP2.6) and “business-as-usual” (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas emission scenarios, respectively. The projected decrease in catch under RCP8.5 becomes 16.2 percent to 25.2 percent by the end of the twenty-first century. • The projected changes in maximum catch potential varied substantially across EEZs in different regions, with EEZs in tropical countries showing the largest decrease, mostly in the South Pacific regions. Catch potential in the temperate Northeast Atlantic is also likely to decrease in the mid-term (2050s). • The projected changes in catch potential in the high latitude regions are much more variable between models, time periods and EEZs because of the high variabilities in projected oceanographic changes between different Earth system models.

Item Type: Publication - Report (UNSPECIFIED)
Divisions: Plymouth Marine Laboratory > Science Areas > Marine Ecosystem Models and Predictions
Depositing User: Kim Hockley
Date made live: 23 Dec 2019 15:15
Last Modified: 23 Dec 2019 15:15
URI: http://plymsea.ac.uk/id/eprint/8852

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