Projections of change in key ecosystem indicators for planning and management of marine protected areas: An example study for European seas

Kay, S; Butenschon, M. 2016 Projections of change in key ecosystem indicators for planning and management of marine protected areas: An example study for European seas. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science. 10.1016/j.ecss.2016.03.003 (In Press)

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2016.03.003

Abstract/Summary

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are widely used as tools to maintain biodiversity, protect habitats and ensure that development is sustainable. If MPAs are to maintain their role into the future it is important for managers to understand how conditions at these sites may change as a result of climate change and other drivers, and this understanding needs to extend beyond temperature to a range of key ecosystem indicators. This case study demonstrates how spatially-aggregated model results for multiple variables can provide useful projections for MPA planners and managers. Conditions in European MPAs have been projected for the 2040s using unmitigated and globally managed scenarios of climate change and river management, and hence high and low emissions of greenhouse gases and riverborne nutrients. The results highlight the vulnerability of potential refuge sites in the north-west Mediterranean and the need for careful monitoring at MPAs to the north and west of the British Isles, which may be affected by changes in Atlantic circulation patterns. The projections also support the need for more MPAs in the eastern Mediterranean and Adriatic Sea, and can inform the selection of sites.

Item Type: Publication - Article
Additional Keywords: climate change, marine protected areas, eutrophication, Mediterranean, North-East Atlantic
Subjects: Conservation
Management
Marine Sciences
Planning
Divisions: Plymouth Marine Laboratory > Science Areas > Marine Ecosystem Models and Predictions
Depositing User: Susan Kay
Date made live: 25 May 2016 14:43
Last Modified: 06 Jun 2017 16:16
URI: http://plymsea.ac.uk/id/eprint/7064

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