Modelling the combined impacts of climate change and direct anthropogenic drivers on the ecosystem of the northwest European continental shelf

Wakelin, SL; Artioli, Y; Butenschon, M; Allen, JI; Holt, JT. 2015 Modelling the combined impacts of climate change and direct anthropogenic drivers on the ecosystem of the northwest European continental shelf. Journal of Marine Systems, 152. 51-63. 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2015.07.006

[img]
Preview
Text
Wakelin&al_JMS_2015_MEECEscenarios.pdf

Download (2MB) | Preview
Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2015.07.006

Abstract/Summary

The potential response of the marine ecosystem of the northwest European continental shelf to climate change under a medium emissions scenario (SRES A1B) is investigated using the coupled hydrodynamics-ecosystem model POLCOMS-ERSEM. Changes in the near future (2030–2040) and the far future (2082–2099) are compared to the recent past (1983–2000). The sensitivity of the ecosystem to potential changes in multiple anthropogenic drivers (river nutrient loads and benthic trawling) in the near future is compared to the impact of changes in climate. With the exception of the biomass of benthic organisms, the influence of the anthropogenic drivers only exceeds the impact of climate change in coastal regions. Increasing river nitrogen loads has a limited impact on the ecosystem whilst reducing river nitrogen and phosphate concentrations affects net primary production(netPP) and phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass. Direct anthropogenic forcing is seen to mitigate/amplify the effects of climate change. Increasing river nitrogen has the potential to amplify the effects of climate change at the coast by increasing netPP. Reducing river nitrogen and phosphate mitigates the effects of climate change for netPP and the biomass of small phytoplankton and large zooplankton species but amplifies changes in the biomass of large phytoplankton and small zooplankton.

Item Type: Publication - Article
Subjects: Earth Sciences
Marine Sciences
Oceanography
Divisions: Plymouth Marine Laboratory > National Capability categories > Modelling
Plymouth Marine Laboratory > Science Areas > Marine Ecosystem Models and Predictions
Depositing User: Yuri Artioli
Date made live: 18 Feb 2016 15:09
Last Modified: 06 Jun 2017 16:15
URI: http://plymsea.ac.uk/id/eprint/6834

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item